A Taste of Early August in Mid-September (2023)

It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!

Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Wildfires from the Western US continue to burn. Unfortunately, that smoke will filter into the Midwest and keep skies quite hazy.

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday. Weather conditions through midweek will still remain rather dry & mild for mid September. However, it turns a little unsettled as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead with shower and thunderstorms chances. Areas of heavier rainfall can't be ruled out near the international border.

After dry weather through the first half of the week, things turn more unsettled late week and into the weekend ahead. Areas of heavier rainfall will be possible across the northern half of the state, where some 1" to 2" amounts can't be ruled out.

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 6th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows another dry and mild day in place across the region. Temps will generally warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. A few low 90s will be possible in the Dakotas, which will be nearly +15F above average.

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows dry and mild weather in place for much of the day. Temps will start a bit on the cooler side, but readings will warm into the upper lower 80s by the afternoon, which will be above average for mid September.

It's been pretty comfortable as of late, but dewpoints will get back into the low/mid 60s over the next few days.

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting in the mid 50s in the morning with highs topping out in the lower 80s in the afternoon. Again, it'll be a dry and comfortable day with breezy southeasterly winds.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings running above average by nearly +5F to +10F over the next several days with a slight increase in humidity values as we approach the weekend. The warmest day will be Thursday as we warm into the mid 80s.

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows dry and comfortable conditions in place through midweek. Temps will once again warm into the 80s, which will be above average for mid September. Rain chances will increase later this week and into the weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible across the northern half of the state. Stay tuned.

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook shows above average temps through the upcoming weekend. It could be fairly warm as we head into next week, but there is a general consensus of some cooling as we approach the end of the month.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation, especially across the eastern half of the nation.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place in the Western US and especially from the Northwest to the High Plains.

As of Monday Tuesday, there were no named storms in the Atlantic Basin. However, there were 2 areas of interest, 1 of which had a medium chance of formation over the next 5 days.

Cue Deep Purple's "Smoke On The Water". The short-term outlook calls for haze and smoke from western fires being swept high overhead. Otherwise Mother Nature is napping. She's on her best behavior after 76 (preliminary) tornadoes in Minnesota in 2022, more than most states in Tornado Alley. Then again tornadoes don't usually spin up during heatwaves or drought.

Our boringly-beautiful weather streak continues with August-like temperatures into early next week. I see 80s into at least Tuesday - 90F is possible on Monday. "That's all well and good Paul, but you DO know we're in a nagging drought. How does that make you FEEL?" Sad, but I'm just a bewildered observer.

I do see wetter days ahead with a good chance of a few swarms of T-storms Friday, Saturday night, and potentially heavier rain by the middle of next week as cooler air returns. In the meantime, forget the calendar. It's early-August out there.

I've unplugged the Doppler. Time to walk the dog in my short-shorts and antagonize the neighbors.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and warm. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 81.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy & Hazy. Winds: ESE 5. Low: 68.

THURSDAY: Sunny and breezy. T-storms up north. Winds: S 10-15. High: 85.

FRIDAY: Sticky with a few PM T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 67. High: 83.

SATURDAY: Some sun, nighttime T-storms. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, stray T-storm or 2. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 85.

MONDAY: Sunny, stinking hot for September. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 75. High: 90.

TUESDAY: Muggy sunshine, late T-storms? Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 86.

September 14th

2099: The next total solar eclipse will take place over Minnesota. It will be visible in the Twin Cites, depending on the weather.

1964: The earliest official measurable snowfall occurs in Minnesota with 0.3 inches at International Falls.

1852: Early frost hits Ft. Snelling and ends the growing season.

September 14th

Average High: 74F (Record: 98F set in 1939)

Average Low: 55F (Record: 33F set in 1996)

Record Rainfall: 1.60" set in 1994

Record Snowfall: None

September 14th

Sunrise: 6:50am

Sunset: 7:26pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 35 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 2 minutes

2.6 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows warmer than average temps returning to the middle part of the country. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will return to the Western US.

Areas of showers and storms will be possible across the Intermountain-West with the potential of a little rain/snow mix in the high elevation in Colorado. There will also be a few storms that migrate into the Midwest late in the day.

Here's the weather outlook through Thursday, which shows unsettled weather across the Intermountain-West as a storm system slowly shifts east. This will eventually bring areas of rain and thunder to the Midwest later in the week. Meanwhile, areas of heavy rainfall will continue across Florida with localized flooding possible.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue across Florida with localized flooding possible. There will also be decent rainfall amounts through the Intermountain-West and also closer to Lake Superior.

"A new assessment of tipping points within the climate system concludes that far more stringent emissions cuts are needed, compared to the most ambitious current plans. Why it matters: The new study, published Friday in Science, finds tipping points lurking much closer to the present level of warming, and that the Paris Agreement's most stringent warming target of 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels could trigger four of them. These would include the abrupt thawing of permanently frozen soil that rings the Arctic and the die-off of warm-water coral reefs. Context: The study defines a tipping point as when changes in a large part of the climate become self-perpetuating. Not every tipping point immediately affects the planet, and some are only felt regionally. Still others — like the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could take centuries to fully play out."

See more from Axios HERE:

"On Aug. 1, a team of scientists from Western University in London, Ontario, collected a giant hailstone while chasing a storm in Alberta, about 75 miles north of Calgary. The hailstone measured five inches across and weighed a little more than half a pound … The Canadian hailstone added to the list of regional records set in the past couple of years, including Alabama's in 2018 (5.38 inches long, 0.612 pounds), Colorado's in 2019 (4.83 inches, 0.53 pounds) and Africa's in 2020 (around seven inches long, weight unknown). Australia set a national record in 2020, then set it again in 2021. Texas' record was set in 2021. In 2018, a storm in Argentina produced stones so big that a new class of hail was introduced: gargantuan. Larger than a honeydew melon."

See more from BoingBoing HERE:

"When the Nasa climatologist James Hansen testified before Congress in June 1988 about a warming planet, the temperature in Washington DC hit a record 100F. It was a summer of unprecedented heatwaves, and 40 states were grappling with drought. His warning was seen as a historic wake-up call – but instead of heeding the existential smoke alarm, the US removed the batteries and kept on cooking. Nearly four decades later, the consequences of a sweltering Earth are hitting home in the US south-west and mountain west – comprising states from California to Colorado. Over the past two decades, extreme heat and dwindling moisture levels have converged to create a "megadrought" deemed the driest period in 1,200 years."

See more from the Guardian HERE: