America is warming fast. See how your city’s weather will be different by 2050. (2023)

Our world is getting warmer. This we know.

Just look at Alaska, which experienced all-time record heat in July, topping out at 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Dozens of other cities are in the throes of a heat wave this week, which forecasters have warned will be “prolonged, dangerous, and potentially deadly.”

But how much will temperatures in US cities change by 2050? By then, scientists say average global warming since preindustrial levels could be about twice what it is in 2018 — and much more obvious and disruptive. It’s a world you’ll (probably) be living in. And it’s the one we’re definitely handing off to the next generation.

Here’s how much the winters and summers in the city closest to you are predicted to change about 30 years from now. (More on our methodology here.)

Winters and summers will be warmer in every city by 2050. Type in other cities to see for yourself:

Our analysis, first published in October 2018, shows that in almost every case, the places we live are going to be strikingly warmer in a few decades.

Every season in every city and town in America will shift, subtly or drastically, as average temperatures creep up, along with highs and lows. Some of those changes — like summers in the Southwest warming by 4°F on average — will mean stretches of days where it’s so hot, it’ll be dangerous to go outside. Heat waves around the country could last up to a month.

Winters will lose days in the 20s and 30s. Rain and snowstorms will be more intense and frequent in some places and less predictable and lighter in others.

How winter and summer temperatures will shift nationwide by 2050

America is warming fast. See how your city’s weather will be different by 2050. (1)

So much of a city’s culture and economy depends on the particulars of the local climate. How high will summer electricity bills be in Frederick, Maryland, when it gets as hot as Tulsa, Oklahoma, is today? What happens to New Hampshire’s tourism if there’s little snow for skiing? Where will Phoenix, Arizona, get its water when the Colorado River slows to a trickle? When will the threat of devastating hurricanes make it too risky to live on the Gulf Coast?

For those who can’t afford to move to cool off from the heat, or find work when local agriculture dries up and fisheries die, these changes will be devastating.

In the map below, see how the weather (and precipitation) in several Northern cities will look and feel a lot like how Southern cities do today. In some cities, it’ll be like moving two states south.

By 2050, the weather in many cities will be similar to southern cities today

America is warming fast. See how your city’s weather will be different by 2050. (2)

You may be thinking an average increase of a few degrees to your summer and winter weather doesn’t seem that bad.

But buried in these averages are extreme weather events — heat waves, severe rainstorms, and droughts — that will be much more damaging and dangerous than the smaller shifts in averages.

In California, for instance, the average temperature shifts will be more subtle. But new climate models show there will be more frequent swings from periods of intense rain to extreme drought, a phenomenon known as weather whiplash. That will put extra stresses on dams and farmers and is likely to lead to more severe mudslides.

Indeed, not every part of the country will experience the same degree or same kind of change.

So we’ve highlighted the 10 cities whose winters and summers will warm the most and the least by 2050 — compared with your own. (You can sort by change in temperature.)

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How your city's average temperature shifts compare to others

Sort cities by:
  • Shift in winter lows
  • Shift in summer highs
  • Population
  • Current
  • Projected

Cities where winters will warm the most by 2050

How your city compares

Cities where winters will warm the least by 2050

Cities where summers will warm the most by 2050

How your city compares

Cities where summers will warm the least by 2050

Most populated US cities

How your city compares

Least populated of top 1,000 US cities

These projections tell us that Midwestern cities like Chicago, Cleveland, and Detroit will see some of the most dramatic shifts in winter lows — from the low 20s up about 5.5°F to the high 20s.

Bozeman, Montana; St. Paul, Minnesota; and Chicago will all see their average summer high shift up by nearly 6°F — a much hotter overall summer.

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And America’s biggest cities, with the exception of San Diego, will all see both their summer and winter temperatures shift by more than 3°F on average.

The big takeaway: The farther north you go in the US, the faster it’s warming. (The same is true for the northern latitudes around the world.)

So far, we’ve just focused on shifts in winter lows and summer highs. But there’s more. You can see how temperatures are projected to change throughout the entire year near you:

Today vs. 2050: your city’s year-long forecast

  • 1986–2015
  • 2036–2065

And here are the projections for precipitation. If you compare cities, you’ll see a lot of variation. And know that scientists are much more uncertain about how rain and snow will change than they are about temperatures:

Today vs. 2050: your city’s year-long precipitation

Can we stop this from happening?

The scenario for future emissions we used to predict the weather in 2050 assumes that we will continue to burn fossil fuels at the same rate, and that the world will have warmed on average by 2°C, or 3.6°F, since preindustrial levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in early October reported that it is still possible to limit average global warming to 1.5°C, or 2.7°F — the more ambitious target under the Paris climate agreement — this century. But to do so, we would need to drastically cut emissions in the next 12 years, halving current levels by 2030.

That would take an unprecedented international effort. And many scientists believe we’ve already made irreversible changes, that we are already on course for at least 2°C, or 3.6°F, of warming by midcentury. It will take years, probably decades, for the climate system to fully register the greenhouse gases we’ve already emitted, are still emitting, and will emit in the coming years.

But as the IPCC argues, it’s essential that we take every possible step now to reduce emissions to avoid the worst outcomes in the coming decades and centuries. Continued high emissions portend even more alarming changes to the planet by 2100 — with warming upward of 4°C, or 7.2°F. But we still have a real shot at limiting it to 2°C or 3°C.

This means immediately accelerating all the tools we already are using to decarbonize the energy system, and developing many new ones, like better technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Read our story about a new climate voter’s guide and consider the political changes we’ll need too.

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As individuals, we can buy less, fly less, drive less, and eat less meat and dairy. We can start planning and preparing now for the warmer future. A problem like climate change was wrought by humanity, and its solutions must come from us too.

Where our data came from

To answer the question of how much temperatures in US cities will change by 2050, we looked at the average summer high and winter low temperatures in 1,000 cities in the continental US, comparing recorded and modeled temperatures from 1986 to 2015 to projections for 2036 to 2065. This offers us the best possible estimate on how much winters and summers will shift from 2000 to 2050.

With help from researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, we built our analysis on the Localized Constructed Analogs data set, which draws on 32 different global climate models. The scenario we examined is known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, one standardized set of assumptions of humanity’s trajectory in the coming years.

RCP 8.5 presumes that the world will continue increasing energy use at the same rate and in the same forms. It predicts the world will have warmed on average by 2°C, or 3.6°F, by roughly 2040.

There are very legitimate criticisms of RCP 8.5 — that it’s too pessimistic, ignores progress we’ve already made on decarbonization, and majorly overestimates how much coal we’ll burn. But two climate scientists we spoke to, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick at the University of New South Wales, and Kate Marvel at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argued it was a realistic scenario for now.

Scientists have also examined the future of the global climate presuming the world takes moderate to aggressive action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But emissions over the past 10 years track reasonably well with RCP 8.5, so it’s a useful marker, establishing the boundaries of the worst-case scenario for the climate.

We averaged annual temperature and rainfall patterns for 30 years (1986-2015) to establish a climate baseline for cities. This average helps eliminate year-to-year variations in the climate like El Niño cycles, isolating the changes wrought by human activity. We then examined how these cities would warm by 2050, again averaging over 30 years (2036-2065). We limited our focus to the contiguous United States, where we had the best data and the most relevant cities for comparison. (Sorry, Alaska and Hawaii.)

There are some other caveats to this analysis. Temperature and precipitation are just two variables out of dozens that define a climate, so there will be many other shifts, including frequency and severity of extreme weather, that matter to people’s day-to-day lives. “The timing and total rainfall of the rainy season really matter for agriculture,” said Marvel. “What matters for city dwellers is the increase in precipitation extremes.”

The climate data used here is also a global projection that’s been downscaled, so some precision is lost when looking at smaller sections of the planet, like cities.

Credits

Writers

Umair IrfanEliza Barclay

Developers

(Video) New York Climate Week event: 2050 Cement and Concrete Net Zero Roadmap - One Year On

Kavya SukumarRyan Mark

Editors

Eliza BarclaySusannah LockeEleanor Barkhorn

Visuals Editor

Kainaz Amaria

Copy Editor

Tanya Pai

Engagement

Lauren Katz

Fact-checker

Tim Williams

Special Thanks

(Video) 2050 Climate Forecast for New York; New York City and Long Island

David Pierce, Climate Research Division at the Scripps Institution of OceanographyPeter Gibson, NASA’s Jet Propulsion LaboratoryTushar Khot, Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence

FAQs

What will climate change do by 2050? ›

Climate shifts like heat waves could restrict the ability of people to work outdoor, and, in extreme cases, put their lives at risk. Under a 2050 climate scenario developed by NASA, continuing growth of the greenhouse emission at today's rate could lead to additional global warming of about 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.

How hot will the weather be in 2050? ›

Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by about 1 degrees Celsius (1.7° degrees Fahrenheit). Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

How much will the temperature have risen by 2050? ›

If we rapidly reduce global CO2 emission and reach net zero emissions by 2050, it is extremely likely that we will be able to keep warming below 2°C. If we do this, it is more likely than not that the global average temperatures will gradually recede to around 1.5°C by the end of the century.

Will it still snow in 2050? ›

A new study out of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab paints a dire picture—California's Sierra Nevada could see most of its snowpack disappear before 2050, with snow in the Cascades and Rockies' following shortly after.

Where will be the best place to live in 2050? ›

Michigan, says globalization expert. A new book examining the forces shaping the future of global migration forecasts Michigan as the best place in the world to live in 2050.

How do you prepare for a climate crisis? ›

Adapt your home and property
  1. flood proof your property.
  2. keep valuables, precious items and documents on higher ground.
  3. make sure you have insurance cover for your property and contents.
  4. avoid tarmac or paving over the garden, as this prevents rain draining away.

What happens if the Earth warms 3 degrees? ›

A rise of 3°C in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100 would be disastrous. Its effects would be felt differently around the world, but nowhere would be immune. Prolonged heatwaves, droughts and extreme weather events could all become increasingly common and severe.

Can we reverse climate change? ›

Yes. While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”).

When did global warming start? ›

The instrumental temperature record shows the signal of rising temperatures emerged in the tropical ocean in about the 1950s. Today's study uses the extra information captured in the proxy record to trace the start of the warming back a full 120 years, to the 1830s.

What will happen if the world heats up by 2 degrees? ›

This 2 degree warmer world still represents what scientists characterize as a profoundly disrupted climate with fiercer storms, higher seas, animal and plant extinctions, disappearing coral, melting ice and more people dying from heat, smog and infectious disease.

What will happen if climate change doesn't stop? ›

The wildlife we love and their habitat will be destroyed, leading to mass species extinction. Superstorms, drought, and heat waves would become increasingly common and more extreme, leading to major health crises and illness. Agricultural production would plummet, likely leading to global food shortages and famine.

What happens if global warming continues? ›

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods of drought in some regions, and an increase in the duration and intensity of tropical storms.

How hot will it be in 100 years? ›

State-of-the-art climate models suggest that this will result in an increase of about 3.5oF in global temperatures over the next century. This would be a rate of climate change not seen on the planet for at least the last 10,000 years.

Will it still snow in 2100? ›

Declining Snow Cover in U.S. Northeast Will Have Major Impacts on Rivers, Study Finds. New research indicates that snow cover across the U.S. Northeast is declining as a result of climate change, and that by 2100 as much as 59 percent of the region will not accumulate any snow.

How hot will it be in 2040? ›

Global Warming Will Hit 1.5 Degrees by 2040, UN IPCC Report Warns.

What part of the US is safest from climate change? ›

1. Michigan. The Great Lakes State takes the top spot in our index thanks in large part to its fairly low susceptibility to most of the major climate threats. It is no lower than 20th out of 48 states in any of the major categories.

What states will be underwater in 2050? ›

Louisiana could be particularly hard hit, according to the report, with 2.4 million acres underwater by 2050. On the Louisiana coast, Terrebonne Parish could see 77 percent of its acreage flood, potentially submerging 5,700 buildings. Florida, North Carolina and Texas could also face substantial losses.

Where is the safest place to live in the US with climate change? ›

Sacramento, California is the best place to live for climate change in 2022. 60% of the top 10 places to live in the U.S. for climate change are in California.

Where should I live to avoid climate change? ›

The best cities for climate change
  • San Francisco, California. ...
  • Seattle, Washington. ...
  • Columbus, Ohio. ...
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota. ...
  • Baltimore, Maryland. ...
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ...
  • Portland, Oregon. ...
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
26 Aug 2022

How can you protect your home from climate change? ›

5 Things You Can Do to Your Home to Prepare for Climate Change
  1. Target your windows. There's really no reason to keep old windows that are in disrepair and/or not energy efficient. ...
  2. Consider different roofing materials. ...
  3. Balance insulation with ventilation. ...
  4. Look into rainwater harvesting. ...
  5. Keep it all in perspective.

What are 10 ways to stop climate change? ›

  1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle.
  2. Walk, Bike (run, skate, move yourself!)
  3. Ride the bus to work (or carpool)
  4. Plant a tree.
  5. Use Less Heat and Air Conditioning.
  6. Change a Light Bulb.
  7. Buy a fuel efficient car (or hybrid vehicle)
  8. Buy local goods and products.

What does global warming smell like? ›

They detected the delicately lemon-tinged note of honeysuckle, the “green-and-dry scent profile” of the Persian silk tree, and kudzu blossoms with odors nearly “identical to artificial grape flavoring.”

Has Earth ever been warmer than it is now? ›

Even after those first scorching millennia, however, the planet has often been much warmer than it is now. One of the warmest times was during the geologic period known as the Neoproterozoic, between 600 and 800 million years ago. Conditions were also frequently sweltering between 500 million and 250 million years ago.

When was the last time the Earth was 3 degrees warmer? ›

Drange points out that the last time the Earth's average global temperature was 3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times was three million years ago.

How many years until climate change is irreversible? ›

There is some indication the system has experienced a gradual weakening over the past few decades, and it may be critically unstable. Lenton's research suggests that if global temperatures continue to rise, the AMOC could collapse in 50 to 250 years.

How long will it take to reverse climate change? ›

It could take as long as 1,000 years after a complete halt of greenhouse gas emissions for environmental measures like sea level and ocean surface temperature to return to pre-industrial levels [source: NOAA]. In addition, other factors besides greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to global warming.

How long will it take the Earth to recover from climate change? ›

Earth is likely to take millions of years to recover from the destruction currently being inflicted by humanity, scientists have warned. A “speed limit” on the rate of evolution means it will take at least 10 million years for the world's diversity to return to pre-human levels, according to a new study.

Who is responsible for global warming? ›

Scientists agree that global warming is caused mainly by human activity. Specifically, the evidence shows that certain heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, are warming the world—and that we release those gases when we burn fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas.

When was the last warming period on Earth? ›

Earth has experienced cold periods (or “ice ages”) and warm periods (“interglacials”) on roughly 100,000-year cycles for at least the last 1 million years. The last of these ices ended around 20,000 years ago.

What is the first solution to global warming? ›

Global warming prevention

What solutions to consider? The first way to prevent climate change is to move away from fossil fuels. What are the alternatives? Renewable energies like solar, wind, biomass and geothermal.

What is the 2 degree scenario? ›

The 2-degree scenario is widely seen as the global community's accepted limitation of temperature growth to avoid significant and potentially catastrophic changes to the planet.

What happens if the Earth warms 4 degrees? ›

Warming of 4°C will likely lead to a sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter, and possibly more, by 2100, with several meters more to be realized in the coming centuries. Sea-level rise would likely be limited to below 2 meters only if warming were kept to well below 1.5°C.

Is it already too late to stop climate change? ›

“While it's true we can never go back to the stable, benign climate that enabled us to flourish for the past 10,000 years…we can reach a new stable state.” There is no going back. No matter what we do now, it's too late to avoid climate change.

How long will humans last? ›

Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to J.

Is it too late to prevent climate? ›

Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise by 2.5 °C to 4.5 °C (4.5 °F to 8 °F) by 2100, according to the latest estimates. Thwaites Glacier. Credit: NASA. But it may not be too late to avoid or limit some of the worst effects of climate change.

What are 5 effects of global warming? ›

Effects of Climate Change
  • Hotter temperatures. As greenhouse gas concentrations rise, so does the global surface temperature. ...
  • More severe storms. ...
  • Increased drought. ...
  • A warming, rising ocean. ...
  • Loss of species. ...
  • Not enough food. ...
  • More health risks. ...
  • Poverty and displacement.

How long will the Earth last? ›

The upshot: Earth has at least 1.5 billion years left to support life, the researchers report this month in Geophysical Research Letters. If humans last that long, Earth would be generally uncomfortable for them, but livable in some areas just below the polar regions, Wolf suggests.

What are the 5 causes of global warming? ›

Causes of Climate Change
  • Heat-trapping Greenhouse Gases And The Earth's Climate. ...
  • Greenhouse Gases. ...
  • Reflectivity or Absorption of the Sun's Energy. ...
  • Changes in the Earth's Orbit and Rotation. ...
  • Variations in Solar Activity. ...
  • Changes in the Earth's Reflectivity. ...
  • Volcanic Activity.
19 Aug 2022

How long before Earth is too hot? ›

This increase might seem slight, but it will render Earth inhospitable to life in about 1.1 billion years. The planet will be too hot to support life.

What will the environment be like in 2050? ›

Between now and 2050, we will continue to see an increase in the environmental and climate-related hazards that are a major concern today. These hazards are innumerable but can be broken down into five broad categories: Increased drought and wildfires. Increased flooding and extreme weather.

How hot will the Earth be in 2030? ›

AUnderstanding Global Warming of 1.5°C*

warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.

How will global warming affect future generations? ›

Extreme temperatures leave many families living in poverty with less food, less clean water, lower incomes and worsening health. Children's immune systems are still developing, leaving their rapidly growing bodies more sensitive to disease and pollution.

What is the future of climate change? ›

Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, higher sea levels, and larger changes in precipitation patterns. The extent of future climate change depends on what we do now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The more we emit, the larger future changes will be.

Which of the following is predicted to be an impact of global warming? ›

Scientists have predicted that long-term effects of climate change will include a decrease in sea ice and an increase in permafrost thawing, an increase in heat waves and heavy precipitation, and decreased water resources in semi-arid regions.

Where will be the best place to live in 2050? ›

Michigan, says globalization expert. A new book examining the forces shaping the future of global migration forecasts Michigan as the best place in the world to live in 2050.

What will the weather be in 2050? ›

Since 1880, average global temperatures have increased by about 1 degrees Celsius (1.7° degrees Fahrenheit). Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

What will happen to world in 2050? ›

World population is expected to increase from 7 billion today to over 9 billion in 2050. A growing population is likely to increase pressures on the natural resources that supply energy and food. World GDP is projected to almost quadruple by 2050, despite the recent recession.

How many years until climate change is irreversible? ›

There is some indication the system has experienced a gradual weakening over the past few decades, and it may be critically unstable. Lenton's research suggests that if global temperatures continue to rise, the AMOC could collapse in 50 to 250 years.

How long will humans last? ›

Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to J.

What will happen in the future of climate change continues? ›

Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, higher sea levels, and larger changes in precipitation patterns. The extent of future climate change depends on what we do now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The more we emit, the larger future changes will be.

How many years do we have left to save the Earth? ›

Scientists say eight years left to avoid worst effects.” : “IPCC climate report gives us 10 years to save the world.”

Is it too late to stop global warming? ›

“While it's true we can never go back to the stable, benign climate that enabled us to flourish for the past 10,000 years…we can reach a new stable state.” There is no going back. No matter what we do now, it's too late to avoid climate change.

Can we stop global warming? ›

Yes. While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”).

Can climate change be stopped? ›

While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.

Who is the first human? ›

The First Humans

One of the earliest known humans is Homo habilis, or “handy man,” who lived about 2.4 million to 1.4 million years ago in Eastern and Southern Africa.

What species will dominate after humans? ›

Humans have certainly had a profound effect on their environment, but our current claim to dominance is based on criteria that we have chosen ourselves. Ants outnumber us, trees outlive us, fungi outweigh us. Bacteria win on all of these counts at once.

Did humans used to live longer? ›

Humans have evolved much longer lifespans than the great apes, which rarely exceed 50 years. Since 1800, lifespans have doubled again, largely due to improvements in environment, food, and medicine that minimized mortality at earlier ages.

Where should I live to avoid climate change? ›

The best cities for climate change
  • San Francisco, California. ...
  • Seattle, Washington. ...
  • Columbus, Ohio. ...
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota. ...
  • Baltimore, Maryland. ...
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ...
  • Portland, Oregon. ...
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
26 Aug 2022

Which country is the most affected by climate change? ›

10 of the countries most affected by climate change
  • Afghanistan. ...
  • Bangladesh. ...
  • Chad. ...
  • Haiti. ...
  • Kenya. ...
  • Malawi. ...
  • Niger. ...
  • Pakistan.
4 Jul 2022

Who will be affected by climate change? ›

While everyone around the world feels the effects of climate change, the most vulnerable are people living in the world's poorest countries, like Haiti and Timor-Leste, who have limited financial resources to cope with disasters, as well as the world's 2.5 billion smallholder farmers, herders and fisheries who depend ...

What happens when the climate clock hits 0? ›

The clock will continue to run down until it hits zero, at which time our carbon budget would be depleted and the likelihood of devastating global climate impacts would be very high.

What is the 2030 deadline? ›

What does it mean? A 2018 report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) has set 2030 as the Climate Change deadline for gas emissions to be halved and reach net zero by 2050.

How long would it take to fix climate change? ›

Earth has 11 years to cut emissions to avoid dire climate scenarios, a report says.

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